Local Market Trends Belie National Data AGAIN!

Data just out from National Association of Realtors shows that February existing home sales nationwide were down 9.6% from January 2011. Nearly 40% of all sales were foreclosures and short-sales. And , as reported here over the past year, there were many "All Cash" sales. 33% of all sales were to cash buyers which is twice the rate of a year ago. Most ominously, the nationwide median price fell 5.2% to the lowest level since 2002.

Many of these statistics reflect the situation we SAW here locally a year or more ago. Cash sales are still a significant portion of the local market, as are short-sales. However, in all categories that I follow: rural homes on acreage, homes over $1M, entry level homes less than $400K, and the total Morgan Hill, Gilroy, San Martin market, our median selling prices have remained basically constant for over a year. In January and February 2011, in fact, they showed increases. 

Other statistics of note from NAR include that existing home median prices are now 45% lower than new home prices for comaprable home size, location, etc. The traditional difference runs around 15% so the market for new homes is naturally depressed. On a positive note, the number of first time home buyers bounced back to about one-third of all buyers, the most since the expiration of the Home Buyers Tax Credit last July.  Nationwide there is about a 9 month inventory of homes for sale, not including whatever lies in the "shadow market" of soon-to-be-foreclosed homes and homes that have been foreclsoed upon but which ar enot yet on the market. Locally our inventories vary between 3 months (entry level) and 2 years (above $1M).

As in Silicon Valley to our north, the local market is stronger in many respects than the national market. Not as strong as we may like, and not as strong as some areas of the country where prices and sales are increasing. But we are hopefully leading the way out of the housing doldrums.

Local Numbers

Local (Southern Santa Clara County, Ca) inventory and sales continue to show some strength. Inventory is down with pending sales up in all segments except homes priced over $1M. Sales in Jan anf Feb were consistent with the past few months while selling prices were UP in all segments except homes priced over $1M.
As I have been saying for the past year, we have appeared to have hit the bottom on selling prices but have yet to see an upturn. Hopefully the Feb numbers portray the start of a new trend upwards!
The nationwide Case-Schiller Index is now reflecting this bottoming out in price.

As always, consult your local real estate professional if you have questions on your specific local market!